140 - The Future is Fiat | Noah Smith (Noahpinion)

New Axis

The concept of a "New Axis" alliance between China and Russia is explored by Noah Smith, who compares it to historical alliances. He describes it as a partnership of convenience rather than shared values, much like the original Axis powers during World War II 1. This alliance is primarily driven by mutual interests, such as China seeking to distract Western powers while expanding its influence in Asia 2. Smith notes, "For China, what they want from Russia is basically distract Europe, distract America if possible, so we can have a freer hand in our backyard to increase our power within Asia."

For China, what they want from Russia is basically distract Europe, distract America if possible, so we can have a freer hand in our backyard to increase our power within Asia.

--- Noah Smith

The discussion highlights the strategic dynamics between these nations and their potential impact on global geopolitics 3.

   

China's Power

China's economic and military influence is underscored by its manufacturing capabilities, which Noah Smith argues are unmatched globally. He explains that while the U.S. retains high-value production, China dominates in volume, making it a formidable force in any potential conflict 4. This dominance is crucial in a world where manufacturing might still matters, even in the nuclear era. Smith states, "If all you have is nukes, then you can either kill yourself to destroy the world or do nothing and surrender."

If all you have is nukes, then you can either kill yourself to destroy the world or do nothing and surrender.

--- Noah Smith

He further discusses the strategic implications of China's potential actions against Taiwan, emphasizing the necessity for preemptive strikes to ensure success 5.

   

US Concerns

The United States' strategic concerns are shaped by its alliances and defense strategies in the face of potential conflicts with China and Russia. Noah Smith highlights the importance of conventional military forces alongside nuclear deterrence, as seen in historical contexts 6. Taiwan emerges as a critical point of contention, with Smith noting that its security is vital to maintaining U.S. influence in East Asia 7. He explains, "If China conquers Taiwan, that completely compromises the security of Japan, who is our major ally in the region."

If China conquers Taiwan, that completely compromises the security of Japan, who is our major ally in the region.

--- Noah Smith

The discussion also touches on the potential for conflict resolution, though Smith acknowledges the uncertainty surrounding these geopolitical tensions 8.